CIPS Exam L4M5 Topic 8 Question 17 Discussion

Macroeconomic indicators are statistics or data readings that reflect the economic circumstances of a particular country, region or sector. They are used by analysts and governments to assess the current and future health of the economy and financial markets.

Macroeconomic indicators will vary in their meaning and the impact that they have on the economy, but broadly speaking there are two main types of indicator.

- Leading indicators, which forecast where an economy might be heading. They are often used by governments to implement policies because they represent the first phase of a new economic cycle. These include the yield curve, interest rates and share prices.

- Lagging indicators, which reflect an economy's historical performance and only change after a trend has been established. They are used to confirm a trend is underway. These include gross domestic product (GDP), inflation and employment figures.

There is also the category of coincident indicators, but these are generally grouped in with lagging indicators as they either happen at the same time or after an economic shift.

The best macroeconomic indicator to watch will heavily depend on your personal preferences, what positions you are taking and which country your portfolio is focused on. However, there are some very common indicators that most traders and investors will keep an eye on.

For simplicity's sake, we have split these out into leading and lagging indicators.

Top leading indicators:

1. The stock market

2. House prices

3. Bond yields

4. Production and manufacturing statistics

5. Retail sales

6. Interest rates

Top lagging indicators:

1. GDP growth rates

2. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and inflation

3. Currency strength and stability

4. Labour market statistics

5. Commodity prices

A procurement professional may find stock market data from the security exchange, while most lagging indicators (such as GDP, CPI, unemployment rate, currency and inflation rate, etc) can be found from government statistics data.

- CIPS study guide page 117-118

- What Are the Key Macroeconomic Indicators? | IG EN

LO 2, AC 2.2