Hmm, I'm not so sure. The 'NotNow' event could also mean that the device can't connect to the Apple servers. Maybe the device is offline or something. Either way, I hope the developers have a backup plan for this 'NotNow' situation.
I agree with Lashandra. The 'NotNow' event is clearly related to the device being locked. I mean, who would ever want to install an app at an inconvenient time? 'NotNow' is the universal language of 'Nah, I'll do it later'.
Mitsue
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